Daily Murders in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent Under Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Official Figures

The mean number of per-day murders per month in the country has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per fresh government data. But, security specialists have advised that murder numbers could fail to indicate improved countrywide stability.

Significant Decline in Daily Numbers

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in the month of November compared with almost 87 when the President began the presidency in September of last year. This data was shared by the chief of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we have seen over these past months is remarkably important,” the President stated, noting that the previous month the lowest figure of homicides were recorded for any single November in the past 10 years.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Fierce organized crime infighting, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to combat the cartels, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent years. The rate peaked at a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics office.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide rate more than 4x greater than that of the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her public safety plan for an apparently steeper reduction in homicides this year.

At a media briefing in August, the President said: “We have a plan, we have monitoring of the strategy, and we have detailed tracking locality by locality in some cases. The approach is effective. And we have to continue working at it every day.”

The key components of Sheinbaum’s security strategy involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative efforts.
• Enhanced collaboration between various agencies.

Analyst Warnings and Data Limitations

However, public safety analysts cautioned that focusing solely on homicide numbers to paint a picture of pacification was flawed. This is notably true considering the increase in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be positive information if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just focus on the murder data and say: ‘Alright, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be guardedly positive.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical timeframe the previous year. But, disappearances have risen by 15% and in certain regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not valid for estimating the context of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who lack the resources or the desire to accurately identify and classify remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month means of daily killings was also problematic because it might mask periods when there were particularly high numbers of murders.

“Employing the daily average renders high peaks of violence unseen,” he concluded.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can highlight the success of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 individuals were detained between last October and this past November for high-impact offenses, per government data. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tonnes of drugs seized.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely politically beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Frustration

Yet despite these efforts, Mexico remains beset by severe bloodshed, with a number of states in the throes of cartel-fueled conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent murder of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last year.

Weeks later, thousands of protesters took to the streets in the capital and throughout the nation to voice their anger at graft and narco-violence.

“The government presents [data] in a manner to construct a narrative of security. Politically it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” Vargas concluded.