A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
