Moving from Grudging Respect to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Maduro.
A unexpected operation against the capital city in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period.
That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.
Official Outrage and Private Thoughts
In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, denouncing the operation as a flagrant violation of global norms and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the efficiency of a power grab that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.
“The operation was carried out competently,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “Most likely, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was supposed to proceed: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov planned to be engaged in combat for four years.”
These observations have fed a mood of introspection among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.
Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how brazen the US intervention seemed. “Within 24 hours, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote.
Allies in Decline
For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.
Yet despite Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.
Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.
“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”
The Ukraine Priority
Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.
“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.
Tangible Costs and New Threats
Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.
Those include S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.
Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.
A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.
“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”
A Bleak Silver Lining?
Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the post-war global system and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, shapes outcomes.
“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev approvingly. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”
