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The most severe possible consequences of the climate crisis for the UK have been mapped by scientists, ranging from a searing 4C increase in mean temperatures to a 6.5-foot surge in sea level. Another scenario envisions a drop of 6C in temperature following the failure of critical Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt food production and energy needs.

Credible Extremes, Not Guarantees

These impacts, certain ones are linked to irreversible climate shifts, are considered as improbable but possible. The scientists explained that these projections addressed a shortfall in risk assessment that had left the UK ill-prepared for extreme outcomes.

"The climate extremes we have mapped aren’t predictions, but they are credible," commented the professor who oversaw the study. "Britain has been formulating policy without the tools to test against catastrophic outcomes. We've now given decision-makers what they need to plan for environmental results they wish to avoid, but dare not dismiss."

A Spectrum of Extreme Weather Projections

Another collection of severe models sets out the possible scale of extreme weather between now and the end of the century. These indicate that thermometer readings could rocket in particular seasons by up to 6C higher than average, while precipitation could be triple typical amounts.

The chance of the extreme scenarios happening remains uncertain due to a lack of certainty about what measures will be enacted to tackle climate change and how the planet's climate will respond. This research was compared to defence planning or stress tests for economic stability.

Key Outcome Highlights

• Severe Heating: Worldwide averages exceeding 4C by 2100 could transpire if international cooperation collapses or if vicious cycles like the Amazon basin dying emit its huge repository of carbon. This would cause extreme and prolonged heat domes and droughts plaguing the UK in summer.
• Ocean Circulation Failure: A major ocean current, the North Atlantic current, is losing strength and losing stability due to climate change. A full shutdown commencing by 2030 would lead to a 6C cooling in the UK. "Crop production would struggle enormously and water resources would be completely altered," said the professor.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A rise of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could occur if polar ice in Greenland and Antarctica collapse rapidly, submerging coastal cities and towns. Unlike the other scenarios, this risk is already understood by coastal engineers.
• Pollution Paradox: Global averages could also be increased by about 0.75C if airborne particulates is drastically reduced. This paradoxical outcome occurs because pollution particles from industrial activity reflect sunlight from warming the ground.

Planning for the Worst

These dire projections could be used to inform the building of major projects, for example new towns, energy plants and flood defences. Understanding these environmental threats could also speed the drive to reduce carbon pollution.

The analysis formulated the extreme models using a mix of observed and historical experience, computer simulations and climate physics. These outcomes do not take into account broader worldwide issues including the agricultural collapse and geopolitical instability.

The project was requested as part of a official risk assessment framework. Previous assessments have warned that not enough attention was being paid to low‐likelihood but high‐impact risks.

Official experts has stated that the UK must "prepare for two degrees of warming" and assess the dangers for four degrees. Past policy documents have been described as being "inadequate" by certain experts.

A government spokesperson said: "Climate change is at the center of this government’s agenda, both building resilience and establishing itself as a renewable energy leader. It is vital that the UK is prepared for the consequences."