Where Has the Excitement Gone? The Decline of the Goal Scoring

Football match action
Wolves managed a decrease of 10 goals from open play than this point the previous campaign.

A key narrative of England's top flight season so far has been the drop of goals scored in open play and the way sides are finding goals more from set-pieces as an alternative.

When we compare goal sources to the initial 11 matches the prior season, we see a drop of 39 scored in open play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and penalties, resulting in 13 fewer in total.

Considering overall statistics, shot attempts clubs are making show a remarkable drop of 370 in open play than this time last season.

Regardless of the significant rise in set-piece goals, there have actually been a mere two extra shots produced from these situations excluding spot-kicks, showing the efficiency sides are at finding ways to net from dead-ball situations.

Goal Statistics Tell a Story

Over 300 goals recorded in 110 games up to now calculates at 2.74 goals per game, which if it continued for all 38 games might be the least for five years, from five seasons ago (2.69).

However, only under 200 goals scored in open play translates to 1.78 per game and is on course to be the lowest for 16 years, from 16 years ago (1.76 per game).

2009-10 is also the only Premier League campaign to experience goals scored at a higher rate from non-penalty set-pieces than the current rate of 0.77 per game (0.79 per game).

Which Teams Are Most Responsible?

When it comes to scoring from open-play, Wolves have recorded the most significant decrease, netting just four in their first 11 fixtures, a reduction of 10 than at this stage the previous campaign.

Outside of Wolverhampton, the Premier League's fall in goals from open play is very much a London phenomenon, with five of the city's seven teams recording at least five goals fewer from open-play than the prior season.

Honestly, this is mainly because them scoring many scores at the beginning of the previous campaign instead of their genuine struggle to score in open play the current term.

Conversely City have experienced the most significant jump, with all but one of their 23 scores this season coming in open-play.

Set-Play Proficiency

Looking at the promoted teams with the teams that went down they replaced. Sunderland the Black Cats have recorded three extra scores in open-play than Southampton managed in matchday 11 en route to relegation last season.

When it comes to goals scored from set-plays (aside from spot-kicks), Arsenal and the Blues have seen the biggest increase, with both sides compensating for the five fewer scores that they've scored in open play with the same number from dead-ball situations.

Manchester United have netted two times more scores from set-pieces as they did in the first 11 matches the previous campaign before the manager assumed control, while Sunderland again prove more successful at converting than the fellow red-and-whites that went down.

Man City don't seem to have got the memo about scoring more from set-plays, as they've recorded three less than last season, as have Forest, though that might be down to the altered approach they have tried to implement.

Overall Patterns

Six teams – Arsenal, Chelsea, the Cottagers, Newcastle, Spurs and the Hammers – represent this season's leading trend-followers by scoring fewer scores from open-play and more from set-plays, while City represent the sole team to go against the grain up to now by doing the exact opposite.

It will be interesting to watch if sides persist to rely so heavily on set-plays as the season goes on or if they find again their overall inventiveness and commence converting more goals in open-play as well.

Amanda Mccarthy
Amanda Mccarthy

A seasoned gaming enthusiast with over a decade of experience in casino analytics and slot machine strategy development.